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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · SUB R1

Elo1516

Elo1521

Jim MillervsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · Saturday, December 11, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:59

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jim Miller threatens submissions; Charles Oliveira has lost 36% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1516

Elo

1521

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricCharles Oliveira

2.92

Strikes / min

3.23

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

56%

Strike defense

48%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

2.29

47%

Takedown defense

54%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.1|Blue +5.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

17% acc · 100%

Head

40% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 40%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

0% acc

Distance

60% acc · 60%

Clinch

0% acc

50% acc · 100%

Ground

100% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:32

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 6

Sig Strikes

5 / 8

16%

Sig Str %

62%

6 / 11

Total Strikes

8 / 12

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:32

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	5 / 8	8 / 12	0 / 1	0
1	Jim Miller	1 / 6	6 / 11	1 / 1	2

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36