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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Benson Henderson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1490

Jim MillervsBenson HendersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · Sunday, August 14, 2011Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Benson Henderson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsBenson Henderson: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Benson Henderson wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Benson Henderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benson Henderson at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jim Miller threatens submissions; Benson Henderson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Benson Henderson has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Benson Henderson

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1516

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Benson HendersonW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rustam Khabilov · Jun 14

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 14

vs Donald Cerrone · Jan 15

SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Feb 15

vs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricBenson Henderson

2.92

Strikes / min

2.93

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

1.79

56%

Strike defense

63%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

2.40

47%

Takedown defense

63%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap+1.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerBenson Henderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Benson Henderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.7|Blue -25.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetBenson Henderson

By target zone

28% acc · 71%

Head

40% acc · 62%

60% acc · 21%

Body

76% acc · 29%

33% acc · 7%

Leg

86% acc · 9%

By position

27% acc · 71%

Distance

35% acc · 31%

50% acc · 21%

Clinch

58% acc · 11%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

60% acc · 58%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Benson Henderson rounds

Round 1Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:16Control

Round 2Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:54Control

Round 3Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:03

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 44

Sig Strikes

65 / 132

32.3%

Sig Str %

47.3%

24 / 55

Total Strikes

119 / 195

0 / 0

TDs

7 / 7

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

10:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Benson Henderson	11 / 32	28 / 53	2 / 2	0
1	Jim Miller	6 / 14	8 / 17	0 / 0	3
2	Benson Henderson	28 / 48	52 / 73	4 / 4	0
2	Jim Miller	4 / 12	7 / 15	0 / 0	3
3	Benson Henderson	26 / 52	39 / 69	1 / 1	2
3	Jim Miller	4 / 18	9 / 23	0 / 0	0

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Benson Henderson

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14