← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Beneil Dariush won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1480

Jim MillervsBeneil DariushUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · Saturday, April 18, 2015Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Beneil Dariush won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsBeneil Dariush: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Beneil Dariush wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Beneil Dariush has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Beneil Dariush

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1516

Elo

1480

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Beneil DariushL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 23

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 23

vs Renato Moicano · Jun 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricBeneil Dariush

2.92

Strikes / min

3.74

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

56%

Strike defense

57%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

2.21

47%

Takedown defense

82%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerBeneil Dariush

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Beneil Dariush(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.8|Blue -35.8

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +241.0|Blue -241.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetBeneil Dariush

By target zone

21% acc · 36%

Head

46% acc · 63%

100% acc · 9%

Body

58% acc · 26%

86% acc · 55%

Leg

60% acc · 11%

By position

27% acc · 55%

Distance

36% acc · 37%

100% acc · 45%

Clinch

63% acc · 37%

Ground

70% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Beneil Dariush rounds

Round 1Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:12

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:52Control

Round 2Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:05

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:31Control

Round 3Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 27

Sig Strikes

27 / 54

38.3%

Sig Str %

60.3%

24 / 43

Total Strikes

55 / 86

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

11:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Beneil Dariush	17 / 39	26 / 48	0 / 1	0
1	Jim Miller	8 / 19	10 / 21	0 / 0	2
2	Beneil Dariush	7 / 11	19 / 26	1 / 1	1
2	Jim Miller	1 / 3	6 / 11	0 / 0	1
3	Beneil Dariush	3 / 4	10 / 12	1 / 2	0
3	Jim Miller	2 / 5	8 / 11	0 / 0	0

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Beneil Dariush

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights24