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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Hernandez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1523

Jim MillervsAlexander HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Saturday, February 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Hernandez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Hernandez at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Hernandez has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Alexander Hernandez

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1516

Elo

1523

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricAlexander Hernandez

2.92

Strikes / min

4.23

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

56%

Strike defense

59%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

1.05

47%

Takedown defense

68%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerAlexander Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.1|Blue +7.1

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +161.0|Blue -161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetAlexander Hernandez

By target zone

23% acc · 48%

Head

37% acc · 57%

64% acc · 24%

Body

78% acc · 36%

83% acc · 28%

Leg

47% acc · 6%

By position

35% acc · 96%

Distance

44% acc · 91%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

88% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Alexander Hernandez rounds

Round 1Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:01

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:39

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 185

Sig Strikes

108 / 234

35.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

68 / 186

Total Strikes

111 / 238

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Hernandez	32 / 66	32 / 66	0 / 0	0
1	Jim Miller	24 / 70	24 / 70	0 / 0	0
2	Alexander Hernandez	34 / 74	34 / 74	0 / 0	0
2	Jim Miller	16 / 50	17 / 51	0 / 1	0
3	Alexander Hernandez	42 / 94	45 / 98	0 / 1	0
3	Jim Miller	27 / 65	27 / 65	0 / 0	1

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18