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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · SUB R1

Elo1516

Elo1492

Jim MillervsAlex WhiteUFC Prediction Result

UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Saturday, September 8, 2018Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:29

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsAlex White: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(56.4%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex White has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Alex White

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1516

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Alex White

oldest →

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Jan 17

KOvs Mitch Clarke · Sep 17

vs James Krause · Jan 18

vs Dan Moret · Mar 19

vs Rafael Fiziev · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricAlex White

2.92

Strikes / min

3.76

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

3.07

56%

Strike defense

60%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

0.92

47%

Takedown defense

71%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap+0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerAlex White

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Alex White(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.3|Blue -24.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -97.0|Blue +97.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetAlex White

By target zone

58% acc · 73%

Head

27% acc · 60%

100% acc · 13%

Body

67% acc · 40%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

53% acc · 53%

Distance

33% acc · 80%

Clinch

50% acc · 20%

78% acc · 47%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Alex White rounds

Round 1Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:19

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 24

Sig Strikes

5 / 14

62%

Sig Str %

35%

17 / 26

Total Strikes

5 / 14

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex White	5 / 14	5 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Jim Miller	15 / 24	17 / 26	1 / 1	1

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Alex White

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10