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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jason Knight won · S-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1369

Jim AlersvsJason KnightUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · Saturday, July 23, 2016Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Jason Knight won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJim Alers: WrestlervsJason Knight: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jim Alers wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Jason Knight wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Alers at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jason Knight enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jim Alers has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jim Alers

Red Corner

Jason Knight

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1357

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Alers

oldest →

vs Alan Omer · Apr 14

KOvs Chas Skelly · Feb 15

latest

Jason KnightL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chas Skelly · May 17

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Jul 17

vs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 17

vs Makwan Amirkhani · May 18

vs Jordan Rinaldi · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim AlersMetricJason Knight

2.90

Strikes / min

2.95

4.38

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

56%

Strike defense

51%

2.26

TDs / 15 min

1.31

80%

Takedown defense

47%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.48Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim AlersJason Knight

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Alers(3 fights)Jason Knight(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.1|Blue +11.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +300.0|Blue -300.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim AlersTargetJason Knight

By target zone

37% acc · 78%

Head

22% acc · 53%

50% acc · 5%

Body

73% acc · 14%

78% acc · 17%

Leg

81% acc · 33%

By position

41% acc · 95%

Distance

32% acc · 91%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

83% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Alers rounds

even

Jason Knight rounds

Round 1Jason Knight edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:22

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Jason Knight edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:39

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Jason Knight edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control2:21

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 100

Sig Strikes

76 / 225

40.3%

Sig Str %

37%

49 / 110

Total Strikes

95 / 245

4 / 10

TDs

1 / 2

55.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:22

Ctrl Time

0:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jason Knight	26 / 103	27 / 104	1 / 2
1	Jim Alers	18 / 44	18 / 44	1 / 1
2	Jason Knight	27 / 78	31 / 82	0 / 0
2	Jim Alers	13 / 31	13 / 32	1 / 3
3	Jason Knight	23 / 44	37 / 59	0 / 0
3	Jim Alers	10 / 25	18 / 34	2 / 6

Jim Alers

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3

Jason Knight

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9