← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mario Pinto won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1501

Elo1548

Jhonata DinizvsMario PintoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Saturday, October 11, 2025Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Mario Pinto won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:10

Style matchupJhonata Diniz: StrikervsMario Pinto: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Mario Pinto wins(74.2%)

Actual result: Mario Pinto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Pinto at +102 American odds

+$102 profit

$202 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mario Pinto is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Jhonata Diniz has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Mario Pinto has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Jhonata Diniz

Red Corner

Mario Pinto

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+102

(50%)

1501

Elo

1548

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'5"

200.66 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jhonata Diniz

oldest →

KOvs Austen Lane · Apr 24

vs Karl Williams · Aug 24

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Nov 24

vs Alvin Hines · Jun 25

latest

Mario PintoW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Austen Lane · Mar 25

vs Felipe Franco · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jhonata DinizMetricMario Pinto

3.89

Strikes / min

2.85

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

1.93

56%

Strike defense

58%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.38

70%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jhonata DinizMario Pinto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jhonata Diniz(5 fights)Mario Pinto(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -47.2|Blue +47.2

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jhonata DinizTargetMario Pinto

By target zone

0% acc

Head

90% acc · 97%

0% acc

Body

50% acc · 100%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

20% acc · 100%

Distance

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

Ground

90% acc · 93%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jhonata Diniz rounds

even

Mario Pinto rounds

Round 1Mario Pinto edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:09

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:55Control

Round 2Mario Pinto edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 5

Sig Strikes

29 / 33

25%

Sig Str %

87%

4 / 9

Total Strikes

87 / 102

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 4

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

7:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mario Pinto	12 / 14	37 / 44	2 / 2	2
1	Jhonata Diniz	1 / 2	4 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	Mario Pinto	17 / 19	50 / 58	1 / 2	0
2	Jhonata Diniz	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 0	0

Jhonata Diniz

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5

Mario Pinto

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights3