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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jhonata Diniz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1501

Elo1505

Jhonata DinizvsKarl WilliamsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Saturday, August 10, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jhonata Diniz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJhonata Diniz: StrikervsKarl Williams: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Karl Williams wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Jhonata Diniz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karl Williams enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Karl Williams has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Jhonata Diniz

Red Corner

Karl Williams

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1501

Elo

1505

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jhonata Diniz

oldest →

KOvs Austen Lane · Apr 24

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Nov 24

vs Alvin Hines · Jun 25

KOvs Mario Pinto · Oct 25

latest

Karl WilliamsW3 streak

oldest →

vs Lukasz Brzeski · Mar 23

vs Chase Sherman · May 23

vs Justin Tafa · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jhonata DinizMetricKarl Williams

3.89

Strikes / min

2.68

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.15

56%

Strike defense

55%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

4.20

70%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jhonata DinizKarl Williams

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jhonata Diniz(5 fights)Karl Williams(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.3|Blue +3.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jhonata DinizTargetKarl Williams

By target zone

43% acc · 54%

Head

30% acc · 76%

100% acc · 5%

Body

50% acc · 7%

96% acc · 41%

Leg

83% acc · 17%

By position

57% acc · 98%

Distance

33% acc · 86%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

Ground

44% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jhonata Diniz rounds

even

Karl Williams rounds

Round 1Jhonata Diniz edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Jhonata Diniz edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Karl Williams edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 103

Sig Strikes

29 / 84

56.3%

Sig Str %

35.3%

63 / 107

Total Strikes

49 / 120

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 5

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Karl Williams	7 / 25	7 / 25	0 / 2
1	Jhonata Diniz	16 / 31	16 / 31	0 / 0
2	Karl Williams	12 / 38	12 / 38	0 / 0
2	Jhonata Diniz	36 / 60	36 / 60	0 / 0
3	Karl Williams	10 / 21	30 / 57	2 / 3
3	Jhonata Diniz	7 / 12	11 / 16	0 / 0

Jhonata Diniz

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5

Karl Williams

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4