Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jhonata Diniz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1501

Elo1459

Jhonata DinizvsAlvin HinesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Saturday, June 28, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jhonata Diniz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJhonata Diniz: StrikervsAlvin Hines: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Jhonata Diniz wins(62.1%)

Actual result: Jhonata Diniz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jhonata Diniz at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jhonata Diniz has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jhonata Diniz has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jhonata Diniz has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jhonata Diniz

Red Corner

Alvin Hines

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1501

Elo

1459

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jhonata DinizL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Austen Lane · Apr 24

vs Karl Williams · Aug 24

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Nov 24

KOvs Mario Pinto · Oct 25

latest

Alvin Hines

oldest →

KOvs RJ Harris · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jhonata DinizMetricAlvin Hines

3.89

Strikes / min

5.47

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

7.47

56%

Strike defense

38%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.00

70%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27Δ 2.27 — meaningful gap-2.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jhonata DinizAlvin Hines

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jhonata Diniz(5 fights)Alvin Hines(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.1|Blue -42.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jhonata DinizTargetAlvin Hines

By target zone

59% acc · 84%

Head

25% acc · 68%

43% acc · 3%

Body

72% acc · 26%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

83% acc · 6%

By position

111

62% acc · 99%

Distance

31% acc · 98%

33% acc · 1%

Clinch

67% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jhonata Diniz rounds

even

Alvin Hines rounds

Round 1Jhonata Diniz edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Jhonata Diniz edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jhonata Diniz edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

112 / 182

Sig Strikes

82 / 259

61%

Sig Str %

30.3%

112 / 182

Total Strikes

83 / 260

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 10

—

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alvin Hines	25 / 82	26 / 83	1 / 2
1	Jhonata Diniz	32 / 55	32 / 55	0 / 0
2	Alvin Hines	17 / 69	17 / 69	0 / 4
2	Jhonata Diniz	37 / 60	37 / 60	0 / 0
3	Alvin Hines	40 / 108	40 / 108	0 / 4
3	Jhonata Diniz	43 / 67	43 / 67	0 / 0

Jhonata Diniz

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5

Alvin Hines

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3