Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jesus Aguilar won · S-DEC R3

Elo1503

Elo1487

Jesus AguilarvsMateus MendoncaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Saturday, February 24, 2024Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Jesus Aguilar won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJesus Aguilar: Submission grapplervsMateus Mendonca: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jesus Aguilar wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Jesus Aguilar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jesus Aguilar at +114 American odds

+$114 profit

$214 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jesus Aguilar has 31pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mateus Mendonca has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jesus Aguilar

Red Corner

Mateus Mendonca

Blue Corner

+114

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1503

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

157.48 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jesus Aguilar

oldest →

KOvs Shannon Ross · Jul 23

SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24

vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25

vs Luis Gurule · Sep 25

vs Sumudaerji · Mar 26

latest

Mateus MendoncaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Javid Basharat · Jan 23

KOvs Nate Maness · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jesus AguilarMetricMateus Mendonca

2.54

Strikes / min

1.66

2.29

Strikes absorbed / min

4.14

61%

Strike defense

30%

1.52

TDs / 15 min

2.54

45%

Takedown defense

55%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.25Δ 2.73 — meaningful gap-2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jesus AguilarMateus Mendonca

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)Mateus Mendonca(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.9|Blue -15.9

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jesus AguilarTargetMateus Mendonca

By target zone

42% acc · 53%

Head

43% acc · 83%

100% acc · 21%

Body

75% acc · 17%

63% acc · 26%

Leg

0% acc

By position

52% acc · 58%

Distance

33% acc · 39%

80% acc · 21%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

40% acc · 21%

Ground

53% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jesus Aguilar rounds

even

Mateus Mendonca rounds

Round 1Jesus Aguilar edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control2:51

1Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 2Mateus Mendonca edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:38

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:56Control

Round 3Mateus Mendonca edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:22

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 36

Sig Strikes

18 / 40

53%

Sig Str %

39%

38 / 62

Total Strikes

43 / 90

1 / 4

TDs

4 / 8

16.5%

TD %

63.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:51

Ctrl Time

8:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mateus Mendonca	1 / 4	7 / 12	2 / 5	0
1	Jesus Aguilar	7 / 11	14 / 22	0 / 1	0
2	Mateus Mendonca	13 / 27	16 / 34	1 / 2	0
2	Jesus Aguilar	6 / 14	17 / 27	1 / 3	0
3	Mateus Mendonca	4 / 9	20 / 44	1 / 1	1
3	Jesus Aguilar	6 / 11	7 / 13	0 / 0	1

Jesus Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights7

Mateus Mendonca

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3