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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jesus Aguilar won · U-DEC R3
Elo1503
Elo1448
Luis Gurule

Jesus AguilarvsLuis GuruleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Saturday, September 13, 2025San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jesus Aguilar won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJesus Aguilar: Submission grapplervsLuis Gurule: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jesus Aguilar wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Jesus Aguilar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jesus Aguilar at +158 American odds

+$158 profit

$258 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jesus Aguilar
Red Corner
VS
Luis Gurule
Blue Corner
+158
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-188
(65%)
1503
Elo
1448
30
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'5"
157.48 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jesus AguilarL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Shannon Ross · Jul 23
W
vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24
W
SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24
L
vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25
L
vs Sumudaerji · Mar 26
latest
Luis Gurule
oldest →
L
KOvs Ode Osbourne · Apr 25
L
vs Alden Coria · Feb 26
W
DECvs Daniel Barez · May 26
L
SUBvs Rei Tsuruya · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jesus AguilarMetricLuis Gurule
2.54
Strikes / min
4.47
2.29
Strikes absorbed / min
4.74
61%
Strike defense
59%
1.52
TDs / 15 min
0.58
45%
Takedown defense
58%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking-0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1483Strikes2.5 vs 4.5Takedowns1.5 vs 0.6Sub Atts1.10 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Jesus AguilarLuis Gurule

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14301455148015051530← oldermost recent →
Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)Luis Gurule(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +54.2|Blue -54.2
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jesus AguilarTargetLuis Gurule

By target zone

35
21% acc · 41%
Head
43
27% acc · 66%
25
58% acc · 29%
Body
12
67% acc · 18%
25
89% acc · 29%
Leg
10
91% acc · 15%

By position

76
34% acc · 89%
Distance
59
34% acc · 91%
9
82% acc · 11%
Clinch
2
40% acc · 3%
0
Ground
4
57% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jesus Aguilar rounds
1
even
1
Luis Gurule rounds
Round 1Jesus Aguilar edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns1
Control0:18
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Luis Gurule edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:20
33Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
85 / 235
Sig Strikes
65 / 186
35.7%
Sig Str %
33.3%
87 / 237
Total Strikes
73 / 195
1 / 5
TDs
0 / 5
16.7%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:38
Ctrl Time
0:21

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Luis Gurule12 / 4912 / 490 / 00
1Jesus Aguilar35 / 7335 / 731 / 20
2Luis Gurule20 / 6422 / 660 / 00
2Jesus Aguilar20 / 6520 / 650 / 20
3Luis Gurule33 / 7339 / 800 / 50
3Jesus Aguilar30 / 9732 / 990 / 10

Jesus Aguilar

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights7

Luis Gurule

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights5