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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Tainara Lisboa won · SUB R3

Elo1460

Elo1477

Jessica-Rose ClarkvsTainara LisboaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · Saturday, May 13, 2023Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Tainara Lisboa won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:20

Model Prediction: Tainara Lisboa wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Tainara Lisboa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tainara Lisboa at -116 American odds

+$86 profit

$186 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tainara Lisboa threatens submissions; Jessica-Rose Clark has lost 60% of fights by sub.
Jessica-Rose Clark has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica-Rose Clark

Red Corner

Tainara Lisboa

Blue Corner

-102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-116

(54%)

1460

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

162.56 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica-Rose ClarkL2 streak

oldest →

vs Pannie Kianzad · Nov 19

KOvs Sarah Alpar · Sep 20

vs Joselyne Edwards · Oct 21

SUBvs Stephanie Egger · Feb 22

SUBvs Julija Stoliarenko · Jul 22

latest

Tainara LisboaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ravena Oliveira · Oct 23

SUBvs Luana Santos · May 25

KOvs Melissa Croden · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica-Rose ClarkMetricTainara Lisboa

3.73

Strikes / min

2.01

3.51

Strikes absorbed / min

2.88

58%

Strike defense

45%

1.66

TDs / 15 min

1.67

62%

Takedown defense

53%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.22Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica-Rose ClarkTainara Lisboa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica-Rose Clark(9 fights)Tainara Lisboa(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.7|Blue +17.7

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica-Rose ClarkTargetTainara Lisboa

By target zone

39% acc · 77%

Head

45% acc · 71%

50% acc · 4%

Body

79% acc · 26%

71% acc · 19%

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

43% acc · 88%

Distance

45% acc · 69%

40% acc · 8%

Clinch

69% acc · 26%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica-Rose Clark rounds

even

Tainara Lisboa rounds

Round 1Tainara Lisboa edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:42

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 2Tainara Lisboa edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:35

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jessica-Rose Clark edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control3:19

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 60

Sig Strikes

42 / 83

45.3%

Sig Str %

51.3%

28 / 66

Total Strikes

97 / 145

1 / 7

TDs

1 / 2

11%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

7:36

Ctrl Time

2:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tainara Lisboa	11 / 20	27 / 38	1 / 1	0
1	Jessica-Rose Clark	8 / 20	9 / 23	0 / 2	0
2	Tainara Lisboa	25 / 51	43 / 70	0 / 0	0
2	Jessica-Rose Clark	13 / 31	13 / 32	1 / 3	0
3	Tainara Lisboa	6 / 12	27 / 37	0 / 1	1
3	Jessica-Rose Clark	5 / 9	6 / 11	0 / 2	0

Jessica-Rose Clark

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights9

Tainara Lisboa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4