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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jessica-Rose Clark won · KO/TKO

Elo1460

Elo1408

Jessica-Rose ClarkvsSarah AlparUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Saturday, September 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jessica-Rose Clark won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Sarah Alpar wins(65.9%)

Actual result: Jessica-Rose Clark wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sarah Alpar at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica-Rose Clark enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jessica-Rose Clark has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jessica-Rose Clark has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sarah Alpar (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jessica-Rose Clark

Red Corner

Sarah Alpar

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1460

Elo

1408

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'4"

162.56 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica-Rose ClarkL3 streak

oldest →

vs Pannie Kianzad · Nov 19

vs Joselyne Edwards · Oct 21

SUBvs Stephanie Egger · Feb 22

SUBvs Julija Stoliarenko · Jul 22

SUBvs Tainara Lisboa · May 23

latest

Sarah Alpar

oldest →

vs Erin Blanchfield · Sep 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica-Rose ClarkMetricSarah Alpar

3.73

Strikes / min

2.36

3.51

Strikes absorbed / min

6.06

58%

Strike defense

38%

1.66

TDs / 15 min

1.61

62%

Takedown defense

20%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.22Δ 3.92 — meaningful gap-3.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica-Rose ClarkSarah Alpar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica-Rose Clark(9 fights)Sarah Alpar(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +52.0|Blue -52.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -47.1|Blue +47.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica-Rose ClarkTargetSarah Alpar

By target zone

69% acc · 87%

Head

20% acc · 25%

90% acc · 12%

Body

50% acc · 25%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

67% acc · 50%

By position

50% acc · 20%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

86% acc · 33%

Clinch

77% acc · 47%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica-Rose Clark rounds

even

Sarah Alpar rounds

Round 1Jessica-Rose Clark edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:01

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:02Control

Round 2Jessica-Rose Clark edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control2:36

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 3Jessica-Rose Clark edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control3:41

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 106

Sig Strikes

12 / 30

71.3%

Sig Str %

35.7%

124 / 175

Total Strikes

26 / 44

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 11

100%

TD %

17.7%

Sub Att

Rev

8:18

Ctrl Time

3:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sarah Alpar	7 / 13	15 / 21	1 / 3
1	Jessica-Rose Clark	16 / 22	27 / 35	1 / 1
2	Sarah Alpar	4 / 10	10 / 16	1 / 5
2	Jessica-Rose Clark	32 / 45	53 / 76	0 / 0
3	Sarah Alpar	1 / 7	1 / 7	0 / 3
3	Jessica-Rose Clark	28 / 39	44 / 64	0 / 0

Jessica-Rose Clark

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights9

Sarah Alpar

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights2