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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Valerie Letourneau won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1359

Jessica RakoczyvsValerie LetourneauUFC Prediction Result

UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · Saturday, April 25, 2015Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Valerie Letourneau won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Valerie Letourneau wins(72.3%)

Actual result: Valerie Letourneau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valerie Letourneau at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valerie Letourneau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Valerie Letourneau has 66pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Rakoczy

Red Corner

Valerie Letourneau

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1355

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica Rakoczy

oldest →

KOvs Julianna Pena · Nov 13

latest

Valerie LetourneauL3 streak

oldest →

vs Elizabeth Phillips · Jun 14

vs Maryna Moroz · Aug 15

vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Nov 15

KOvs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 16

vs Viviane Pereira · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica RakoczyMetricValerie Letourneau

2.50

Strikes / min

4.51

3.55

Strikes absorbed / min

5.40

64%

Strike defense

58%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

0.77

Takedown defense

66%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.05evenly matched on net striking-0.89

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica RakoczyValerie Letourneau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Rakoczy(2 fights)Valerie Letourneau(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.1|Blue +4.1

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica RakoczyTargetValerie Letourneau

By target zone

33% acc · 57%

Head

18% acc · 45%

71% acc · 37%

Body

71% acc · 26%

60% acc · 7%

Leg

65% acc · 29%

By position

35% acc · 63%

Distance

27% acc · 71%

79% acc · 24%

Clinch

45% acc · 26%

67% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Rakoczy rounds

even

Valerie Letourneau rounds

Round 1Jessica Rakoczy edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control3:27

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Valerie Letourneau edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:35

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jessica Rakoczy edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:17

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 107

Sig Strikes

38 / 124

45.3%

Sig Str %

26.3%

60 / 125

Total Strikes

50 / 136

1 / 5

TDs

2 / 2

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

6:19

Ctrl Time

0:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Valerie Letourneau	2 / 14	2 / 14	1 / 1	2
1	Jessica Rakoczy	13 / 22	19 / 31	1 / 1	1
2	Valerie Letourneau	19 / 51	27 / 59	0 / 0	0
2	Jessica Rakoczy	13 / 33	18 / 38	0 / 1	0
3	Valerie Letourneau	17 / 59	21 / 63	1 / 1	0
3	Jessica Rakoczy	20 / 52	23 / 56	0 / 3	0

Jessica Rakoczy

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Valerie Letourneau

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6