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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Tabatha Ricci won · SUB R2
Elo1492
Elo1492
Tabatha Ricci editorial illustration

Jessica PennevsTabatha RicciUFC Prediction Result

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Saturday, March 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tabatha Ricci won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:14

Model Prediction: Tabatha Ricci wins(81.6%)

Actual result: Tabatha Ricci wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tabatha Ricci at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tabatha Ricci has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Tabatha Ricci has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Jessica Penne has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Penne
Red Corner
VS
Tabatha Ricci
Blue Corner
+195
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
1492
Elo
1492
43
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'1"
170.18 cm
Reach
154.94 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica PenneL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Danielle Taylor · Apr 17
W
vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 21
W
SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Aug 21
L
vs Emily Ducote · Jul 22
L
vs Elise Reed · Oct 24
latest
Tabatha RicciL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Angela Hill · Aug 24
L
vs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 24
W
KOvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 25
L
DECvs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 26
L
DECvs Fatima Kline · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica PenneMetricTabatha Ricci
2.63
Strikes / min
4.00
5.05
Strikes absorbed / min
4.83
45%
Strike defense
57%
1.29
TDs / 15 min
2.51
36%
Takedown defense
65%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.42Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.83

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1488 vs 1517Strikes2.5 vs 4.6Takedowns1.3 vs 3.0Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.10Form-0.2 vs 0.6
Jessica PenneTabatha Ricci

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Jessica Penne(9 fights)Tabatha Ricci(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -56.0|Blue +56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica PenneTargetTabatha Ricci

By target zone

4
20% acc · 67%
Head
19
54% acc · 53%
2
50% acc · 33%
Body
2
100% acc · 6%
0
0% acc
Leg
15
88% acc · 42%

By position

4
17% acc · 67%
Distance
15
47% acc · 42%
1
100% acc · 17%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 6%
1
100% acc · 17%
Ground
19
95% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jessica Penne rounds
0
even
2
Tabatha Ricci rounds
Round 1Tabatha Ricci edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:54Control
Round 2Tabatha Ricci edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:20Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 25
Sig Strikes
36 / 54
24%
Sig Str %
66%
19 / 44
Total Strikes
81 / 109
0 / 1
TDs
4 / 5
0%
TD %
87.5%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
5:14

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tabatha Ricci26 / 3962 / 833 / 40
1Jessica Penne3 / 1314 / 300 / 00
2Tabatha Ricci10 / 1519 / 261 / 11
2Jessica Penne3 / 125 / 140 / 10

Jessica Penne

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights9

Tabatha Ricci

StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach61.0"
Fights12