Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Jessica Penne won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1494

Jessica PennevsRanda MarkosUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale · Friday, December 12, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jessica Penne won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jessica Penne wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Jessica Penne wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessica Penne at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Penne enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Randa Markos has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Randa Markos has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jessica Penne has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Penne

Red Corner

Randa Markos

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1492

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica PenneL3 streak

oldest →

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 21

SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Aug 21

vs Emily Ducote · Jul 22

SUBvs Tabatha Ricci · Mar 23

vs Elise Reed · Oct 24

latest

Randa Markos

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 20

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Sep 20

vs Kanako Murata · Nov 20

vs Luana Pinheiro · May 21

vs Livinha Souza · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica PenneMetricRanda Markos

2.63

Strikes / min

2.97

5.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

45%

Strike defense

58%

1.29

TDs / 15 min

1.12

36%

Takedown defense

52%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.42Δ 2.29 — meaningful gap-0.13

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Penne(9 fights)Randa Markos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica PenneTargetRanda Markos

By target zone

32% acc · 62%

Head

49% acc · 80%

67% acc · 21%

Body

67% acc · 4%

70% acc · 18%

Leg

90% acc · 16%

By position

27% acc · 49%

Distance

51% acc · 76%

86% acc · 15%

Clinch

20% acc · 2%

70% acc · 36%

Ground

80% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Penne rounds

even

Randa Markos rounds

Round 1Jessica Penne edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns3

Control2:47

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:47Control

Round 2Randa Markos edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:12

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 3Jessica Penne edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:43

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 98

Sig Strikes

55 / 102

44.3%

Sig Str %

58%

94 / 166

Total Strikes

76 / 124

4 / 8

TDs

1 / 2

41.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:42

Ctrl Time

2:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Randa Markos	8 / 11	11 / 14	0 / 0
1	Jessica Penne	8 / 15	32 / 39	3 / 4
2	Randa Markos	28 / 54	46 / 73	1 / 2
2	Jessica Penne	17 / 55	26 / 71	0 / 2
3	Randa Markos	19 / 37	19 / 37	0 / 0
3	Jessica Penne	14 / 28	36 / 56	1 / 2

Jessica Penne

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9

Randa Markos

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights17