Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Jessica Andrade won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1484

Jessica PennevsJessica AndradeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Saturday, June 4, 2016Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Jessica Andrade won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:56

Model Prediction: Jessica Andrade wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Jessica Andrade wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessica Andrade at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Penne enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jessica Andrade has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jessica Penne has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Penne

Red Corner

Jessica Andrade

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1492

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'1"

170.18 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica PenneL3 streak

oldest →

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 21

SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Aug 21

vs Emily Ducote · Jul 22

SUBvs Tabatha Ricci · Mar 23

vs Elise Reed · Oct 24

latest

Jessica AndradeL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mackenzie Dern · Nov 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica PenneMetricJessica Andrade

2.63

Strikes / min

6.37

5.05

Strikes absorbed / min

5.58

45%

Strike defense

54%

1.29

TDs / 15 min

2.10

36%

Takedown defense

75%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.42Δ 3.21 — meaningful gap+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica PenneJessica Andrade

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Penne(9 fights)Jessica Andrade(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.2|Blue -8.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica PenneTargetJessica Andrade

By target zone

25% acc · 63%

Head

53% acc · 77%

43% acc · 37%

Body

79% acc · 22%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

24% acc · 70%

Distance

54% acc · 67%

73% acc · 30%

Clinch

65% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Penne rounds

even

Jessica Andrade rounds

Round 1Jessica Andrade edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

64Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Jessica Andrade edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

53Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 91

Sig Strikes

117 / 205

28.5%

Sig Str %

56.5%

28 / 92

Total Strikes

118 / 206

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jessica Andrade	64 / 107	65 / 108	0 / 0
1	Jessica Penne	18 / 57	19 / 58	0 / 3
2	Jessica Andrade	53 / 98	53 / 98	0 / 0
2	Jessica Penne	9 / 34	9 / 34	0 / 3

Jessica Penne

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30