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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Emily Ducote won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1495

Jessica PennevsEmily DucoteUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 16, 2022Elmont, New York, USA

Official fight result

Emily Ducote won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Emily Ducote wins(65.6%)

Actual result: Emily Ducote wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Emily Ducote at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Emily Ducote has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Emily Ducote has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jessica Penne has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Penne

Red Corner

Emily Ducote

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1492

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'2"

170.18 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica PenneL2 streak

oldest →

vs Danielle Taylor · Apr 17

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 21

SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Aug 21

SUBvs Tabatha Ricci · Mar 23

vs Elise Reed · Oct 24

latest

Emily Ducote

oldest →

vs Angela Hill · Dec 22

vs Loopy Godinez · May 23

vs Ashley Yoder · Oct 23

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica PenneMetricEmily Ducote

2.63

Strikes / min

7.45

5.05

Strikes absorbed / min

7.84

45%

Strike defense

57%

1.29

TDs / 15 min

0.20

36%

Takedown defense

94%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.42Δ 2.03 — meaningful gap-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica PenneEmily Ducote

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Penne(9 fights)Emily Ducote(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.7|Blue +3.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica PenneTargetEmily Ducote

By target zone

18% acc · 59%

Head

36% acc · 35%

72% acc · 41%

Body

71% acc · 21%

Leg

88% acc · 44%

By position

24% acc · 87%

Distance

115

57% acc · 99%

80% acc · 13%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Penne rounds

even

Emily Ducote rounds

Round 1Emily Ducote edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Emily Ducote edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Emily Ducote edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 244

Sig Strikes

116 / 205

25.3%

Sig Str %

56.3%

68 / 249

Total Strikes

117 / 206

0 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Emily Ducote	35 / 58	35 / 58	0 / 0
1	Jessica Penne	17 / 67	20 / 70	0 / 3
2	Emily Ducote	37 / 73	38 / 74	0 / 0
2	Jessica Penne	26 / 88	28 / 90	0 / 4
3	Emily Ducote	44 / 74	44 / 74	0 / 0
3	Jessica Penne	20 / 89	20 / 89	0 / 1

Jessica Penne

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9

Emily Ducote

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights5