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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Elise Reed won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1494

Jessica PennevsElise ReedUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Saturday, October 19, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Elise Reed won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Elise Reed wins(78.2%)

Actual result: Elise Reed wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elise Reed at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Elise Reed has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jessica Penne has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Penne

Red Corner

Elise Reed

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1492

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'3"

170.18 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica PenneL2 streak

oldest →

vs Danielle Taylor · Apr 17

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 21

SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Aug 21

vs Emily Ducote · Jul 22

SUBvs Tabatha Ricci · Mar 23

latest

Elise ReedL2 streak

oldest →

vs Melissa Martinez · Sep 22

SUBvs Loma Lookboonmee · Feb 23

vs Jinh Yu Frey · Jun 23

SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Sep 23

KOvs Denise Gomes · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica PenneMetricElise Reed

2.63

Strikes / min

3.41

5.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

45%

Strike defense

51%

1.29

TDs / 15 min

0.46

36%

Takedown defense

53%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.42Δ 2.57 — meaningful gap+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica PenneElise Reed

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Penne(9 fights)Elise Reed(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica PenneTargetElise Reed

By target zone

29% acc · 48%

Head

58% acc · 72%

72% acc · 33%

Body

95% acc · 15%

91% acc · 19%

Leg

63% acc · 13%

By position

39% acc · 81%

Distance

110

61% acc · 94%

77% acc · 19%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Penne rounds

even

Elise Reed rounds

Round 1Jessica Penne edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:49

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Elise Reed edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:27

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Elise Reed edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

67Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 125

Sig Strikes

117 / 188

44.3%

Sig Str %

54.3%

98 / 174

Total Strikes

229 / 306

1 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

6.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:16

Ctrl Time

0:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Elise Reed	6 / 17	105 / 122	0 / 0
1	Jessica Penne	19 / 33	51 / 70	1 / 5
2	Elise Reed	44 / 70	56 / 82	0 / 0
2	Jessica Penne	18 / 42	26 / 50	0 / 4
3	Elise Reed	67 / 101	68 / 102	0 / 0
3	Jessica Penne	17 / 50	21 / 54	0 / 4

Jessica Penne

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9

Elise Reed

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights9