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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Tatiana Suarez won · SUB R2

Elo1484

Elo1527

Jessica AndradevsTatiana SuarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · Saturday, August 5, 2023Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Tatiana Suarez won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:31

Style matchupJessica Andrade: WrestlervsTatiana Suarez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tatiana Suarez wins(68.3%)

Actual result: Tatiana Suarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tatiana Suarez at -375 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tatiana Suarez threatens submissions; Jessica Andrade has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Jessica Andrade has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jessica Andrade has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tatiana Suarez (53.5%).
Tatiana Suarez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Andrade

Red Corner

Tatiana Suarez

Blue Corner

+295

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-375

(79%)

1484

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'1"

Height

5'5"

157.48 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica AndradeL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mackenzie Dern · Nov 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Tatiana SuarezW2 streak

oldest →

vs Nina Ansaroff · Jun 19

SUBvs Montana De La Rosa · Feb 23

vs Zhang Weili · Feb 25

vs Amanda Lemos · Sep 25

SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica AndradeMetricTatiana Suarez

6.37

Strikes / min

2.86

5.58

Strikes absorbed / min

1.63

54%

Strike defense

44%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

4.52

75%

Takedown defense

57%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.79evenly matched on net striking+1.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica AndradeTatiana Suarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Andrade(10 fights)Tatiana Suarez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.8|Blue +43.8

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica AndradeTargetTatiana Suarez

By target zone

14% acc · 18%

Head

15% acc · 13%

63% acc · 45%

Body

65% acc · 74%

57% acc · 36%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

35% acc · 73%

Distance

36% acc · 57%

50% acc · 27%

Clinch

77% acc · 43%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Andrade rounds

even

Tatiana Suarez rounds

Round 1Tatiana Suarez edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:05

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:38Control

Round 2Tatiana Suarez edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:12

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 29

Sig Strikes

23 / 49

20%

Sig Str %

55%

13 / 31

Total Strikes

25 / 51

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

2:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tatiana Suarez	19 / 43	20 / 44	1 / 1	0
1	Jessica Andrade	11 / 27	13 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Tatiana Suarez	4 / 6	5 / 7	2 / 2	1
2	Jessica Andrade	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30

Tatiana Suarez

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9