Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Rose Namajunas won · S-DEC R3

Elo1484

Elo1499

Jessica AndradevsRose NamajunasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Saturday, July 11, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Rose Namajunas won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJessica Andrade: WrestlervsRose Namajunas: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jessica Andrade wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Rose Namajunas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessica Andrade at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Andrade

Red Corner

Rose Namajunas

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-215

(68%)

1484

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'5"

157.48 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica AndradeL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mackenzie Dern · Nov 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Rose Namajunas

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24

vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24

vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24

vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25

vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica AndradeMetricRose Namajunas

6.37

Strikes / min

3.50

5.58

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

54%

Strike defense

63%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

1.47

75%

Takedown defense

62%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.79evenly matched on net striking+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica AndradeRose Namajunas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Andrade(10 fights)Rose Namajunas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.4|Blue +15.4

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica AndradeTargetRose Namajunas

By target zone

23% acc · 44%

Head

30% acc · 77%

45% acc · 35%

Body

63% acc · 15%

94% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

33% acc · 90%

Distance

34% acc · 94%

64% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Andrade rounds

even

Rose Namajunas rounds

Round 1Rose Namajunas edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rose Namajunas edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jessica Andrade edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:29

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 205

Sig Strikes

82 / 235

34%

Sig Str %

34.7%

79 / 213

Total Strikes

82 / 235

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rose Namajunas	31 / 75	31 / 75	0 / 0
1	Jessica Andrade	18 / 53	18 / 53	0 / 1
2	Rose Namajunas	31 / 81	31 / 81	0 / 0
2	Jessica Andrade	26 / 74	28 / 76	0 / 1
3	Rose Namajunas	20 / 79	20 / 79	0 / 1
3	Jessica Andrade	27 / 78	33 / 84	1 / 1

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights19