Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Natalia Silva won · U-DEC R3

Elo1484

Elo1550

Jessica AndradevsNatalia SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Saturday, September 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Natalia Silva won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJessica Andrade: WrestlervsNatalia Silva: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Natalia Silva wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Natalia Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Natalia Silva enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Natalia Silva has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Natalia Silva has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Natalia Silva (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Andrade

Red Corner

Natalia Silva

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1484

Elo

1550

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'1"

Height

5'4"

157.48 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica AndradeL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Aug 23

KOvs Mackenzie Dern · Nov 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Natalia SilvaW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Victoria Leonardo · May 23

vs Andrea Lee · Aug 23

vs Viviane Araujo · Feb 24

vs Alexa Grasso · May 25

vs Rose Namajunas · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica AndradeMetricNatalia Silva

6.37

Strikes / min

4.81

5.58

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

54%

Strike defense

66%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

0.43

75%

Takedown defense

90%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.79Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap+2.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica AndradeNatalia Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Andrade(10 fights)Natalia Silva(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -66.4|Blue +66.4

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica AndradeTargetNatalia Silva

By target zone

29% acc · 66%

Head

44% acc · 57%

65% acc · 26%

Body

84% acc · 32%

67% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

35% acc · 96%

Distance

106

54% acc · 91%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Andrade rounds

even

Natalia Silva rounds

Round 1Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:04

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:55

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 3Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:12

47Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 140

Sig Strikes

117 / 208

34%

Sig Str %

56.3%

62 / 153

Total Strikes

119 / 211

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:11

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Natalia Silva	33 / 74	33 / 74	0 / 0
1	Jessica Andrade	24 / 56	24 / 56	0 / 0
2	Natalia Silva	37 / 69	37 / 70	0 / 0
2	Jessica Andrade	11 / 37	17 / 44	0 / 0
3	Natalia Silva	47 / 65	49 / 67	0 / 1
3	Jessica Andrade	15 / 47	21 / 53	0 / 1

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30

Natalia Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8