Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marion Reneau won · SUB R1

Elo1484

Elo1404

Jessica AndradevsMarion ReneauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · Sunday, February 22, 2015Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Official fight result

Marion Reneau won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:54

Model Prediction: Marion Reneau wins(72.8%)

Actual result: Marion Reneau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marion Reneau at +248 American odds

+$248 profit

$348 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Marion Reneau threatens submissions; Jessica Andrade has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Jessica Andrade has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Marion Reneau has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Andrade

Red Corner

Marion Reneau

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+248

(29%)

1484

Elo

1404

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'6"

157.48 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica AndradeL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mackenzie Dern · Nov 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Marion ReneauL5 streak

oldest →

vs Cat Zingano · Jul 18

vs Yana Kunitskaya · Mar 19

vs Raquel Pennington · Jun 20

vs Macy Chiasson · Mar 21

KOvs Miesha Tate · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica AndradeMetricMarion Reneau

6.37

Strikes / min

3.20

5.58

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

54%

Strike defense

59%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

0.62

75%

Takedown defense

50%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.79Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica AndradeMarion Reneau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Andrade(10 fights)Marion Reneau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +79.8|Blue -79.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +3.4|Blue -3.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica AndradeTargetMarion Reneau

By target zone

36% acc · 83%

Head

33% acc · 83%

100% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

27% acc · 50%

Distance

36% acc · 83%

75% acc · 50%

Clinch

50% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Andrade rounds

even

Marion Reneau rounds

Round 1Jessica Andrade edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:01

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 15

Sig Strikes

6 / 16

40%

Sig Str %

37%

8 / 21

Total Strikes

9 / 20

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marion Reneau	6 / 16	9 / 20	0 / 0	1
1	Jessica Andrade	6 / 15	8 / 21	0 / 0	0

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30

Marion Reneau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights12