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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Jessica Andrade won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1484

Elo1483

Jessica AndradevsKarolina KowalkiewiczUFC Prediction Result

UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Saturday, September 8, 2018Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jessica Andrade won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:58

Style matchupJessica Andrade: WrestlervsKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Jessica Andrade wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karolina Kowalkiewicz at +360 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Andrade

Red Corner

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1484

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'3"

157.48 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica AndradeL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mackenzie Dern · Nov 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica AndradeMetricKarolina Kowalkiewicz

6.37

Strikes / min

5.54

5.58

Strikes absorbed / min

5.77

54%

Strike defense

56%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

0.36

75%

Takedown defense

74%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.79Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica AndradeKarolina Kowalkiewicz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Andrade(10 fights)Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica AndradeTargetKarolina Kowalkiewicz

By target zone

48% acc · 84%

Head

33% acc · 63%

80% acc · 11%

Body

83% acc · 21%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

48% acc · 82%

Distance

37% acc · 75%

88% acc · 18%

Clinch

86% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Andrade rounds

even

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

Round 1Jessica Andrade edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 73

Sig Strikes

24 / 56

52%

Sig Str %

42%

39 / 74

Total Strikes

25 / 58

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	24 / 56	25 / 58	0 / 0	0
1	Jessica Andrade	38 / 73	39 / 74	0 / 0	0

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19