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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jessica Andrade won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1484

Elo1455

Jessica AndradevsCynthia CalvilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Saturday, September 25, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jessica Andrade won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:54

Style matchupJessica Andrade: WrestlervsCynthia Calvillo: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jessica Andrade wins(67.2%)

Actual result: Jessica Andrade wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessica Andrade at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cynthia Calvillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Cynthia Calvillo threatens submissions; Jessica Andrade has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Cynthia Calvillo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Andrade

Red Corner

Cynthia Calvillo

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1484

Elo

1455

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'4"

157.48 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica AndradeL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mackenzie Dern · Nov 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Cynthia CalvilloL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jessica Eye · Jun 20

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 20

KOvs Andrea Lee · Nov 21

vs Nina Nunes · Aug 22

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica AndradeMetricCynthia Calvillo

6.37

Strikes / min

4.41

5.58

Strikes absorbed / min

4.12

54%

Strike defense

64%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

1.80

75%

Takedown defense

77%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.79evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica AndradeCynthia Calvillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Andrade(10 fights)Cynthia Calvillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica AndradeTargetCynthia Calvillo

By target zone

49% acc · 71%

Head

19% acc · 37%

67% acc · 4%

Body

72% acc · 48%

92% acc · 25%

Leg

80% acc · 15%

By position

57% acc · 85%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

50% acc · 15%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Andrade rounds

even

Cynthia Calvillo rounds

Round 1Jessica Andrade edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 86

Sig Strikes

27 / 75

55%

Sig Str %

36%

48 / 86

Total Strikes

27 / 75

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cynthia Calvillo	27 / 75	27 / 75	0 / 0	0
1	Jessica Andrade	48 / 86	48 / 86	0 / 0	0

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30

Cynthia Calvillo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12