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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Jessica Aguilar won · U-DEC R3

Elo1372

Elo1375

Jessica AguilarvsJodie EsquibelUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Saturday, July 14, 2018Boise, Idaho, USA

Official fight result

Jessica Aguilar won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJessica Aguilar: Pressure fightervsJodie Esquibel: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jodie Esquibel wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Jessica Aguilar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jodie Esquibel at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Aguilar enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jodie Esquibel enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jodie Esquibel has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Aguilar

Red Corner

Jodie Esquibel

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1372

Elo

1375

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'1"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica AguilarL4 streak

oldest →

vs Claudia Gadelha · Aug 15

vs Cortney Casey · May 17

SUBvs Weili Zhang · Nov 18

vs Marina Rodriguez · Mar 19

latest

Jodie EsquibelL3 streak

oldest →

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Oct 17

vs Angela Hill · Apr 19

vs Hannah Cifers · Aug 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica AguilarMetricJodie Esquibel

4.93

Strikes / min

4.10

7.19

Strikes absorbed / min

7.37

53%

Strike defense

52%

0.94

TDs / 15 min

0.75

50%

Takedown defense

83%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.26Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap-3.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica AguilarJodie Esquibel

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Aguilar(5 fights)Jodie Esquibel(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.6|Blue +3.6

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +161.0|Blue -161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica AguilarTargetJodie Esquibel

By target zone

55% acc · 65%

Head

36% acc · 67%

89% acc · 25%

Body

71% acc · 33%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 66%

Distance

41% acc · 90%

90% acc · 34%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Aguilar rounds

even

Jodie Esquibel rounds

Round 1Jessica Aguilar edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control1:13

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 2Jessica Aguilar edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Jessica Aguilar edged it

Sig. strikes57

Takedowns0

Control0:21

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

128 / 199

Sig Strikes

81 / 190

65.3%

Sig Str %

40.7%

138 / 209

Total Strikes

81 / 190

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:34

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jodie Esquibel	14 / 43	14 / 43	0 / 0
1	Jessica Aguilar	34 / 44	40 / 50	0 / 2
2	Jodie Esquibel	29 / 69	29 / 69	0 / 1
2	Jessica Aguilar	37 / 68	39 / 70	0 / 1
3	Jodie Esquibel	38 / 78	38 / 78	0 / 1
3	Jessica Aguilar	57 / 87	59 / 89	0 / 3

Jessica Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights5

Jodie Esquibel

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights4