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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Cortney Casey won · U-DEC R3

Elo1372

Elo1495

Jessica AguilarvsCortney CaseyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, May 13, 2017Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Cortney Casey won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJessica Aguilar: Pressure fightervsCortney Casey: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Cortney Casey wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Cortney Casey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cortney Casey at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cortney Casey has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Aguilar

Red Corner

Cortney Casey

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1372

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'7"

160.02 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica AguilarL2 streak

oldest →

vs Claudia Gadelha · Aug 15

vs Jodie Esquibel · Jul 18

SUBvs Weili Zhang · Nov 18

vs Marina Rodriguez · Mar 19

latest

Cortney Casey

oldest →

SUBvs Mara Romero Borella · May 20

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Jun 20

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 21

vs Liana Jojua · Nov 21

vs Antonina Shevchenko · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica AguilarMetricCortney Casey

4.93

Strikes / min

4.29

7.19

Strikes absorbed / min

4.00

53%

Strike defense

55%

0.94

TDs / 15 min

0.39

50%

Takedown defense

39%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.26Δ 2.55 — meaningful gap+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica AguilarCortney Casey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Aguilar(5 fights)Cortney Casey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -123.3|Blue +123.3

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -2.9|Blue +2.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +476.0|Blue -476.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica AguilarTargetCortney Casey

By target zone

39% acc · 47%

Head

28% acc · 68%

67% acc · 18%

Body

64% acc · 9%

95% acc · 35%

Leg

86% acc · 23%

By position

45% acc · 42%

Distance

24% acc · 49%

56% acc · 18%

Clinch

58% acc · 20%

66% acc · 40%

Ground

65% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Aguilar rounds

even

Cortney Casey rounds

Round 1Cortney Casey edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control2:36

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Cortney Casey edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control3:21

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Cortney Casey edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:31

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 106

Sig Strikes

103 / 294

53.3%

Sig Str %

35.7%

102 / 154

Total Strikes

172 / 368

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:28

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cortney Casey	35 / 92	62 / 123	0 / 0
1	Jessica Aguilar	21 / 39	33 / 53	1 / 1
2	Cortney Casey	37 / 86	59 / 109	0 / 0
2	Jessica Aguilar	16 / 30	36 / 50	2 / 2
3	Cortney Casey	31 / 116	51 / 136	0 / 0
3	Jessica Aguilar	20 / 37	33 / 51	1 / 2

Jessica Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights5

Cortney Casey

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15