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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Lee won · S-DEC R3

Elo1437

Elo1466

Jesse RonsonvsKevin LeeUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · Sunday, July 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Lee won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJesse Ronson: Well-roundedvsKevin Lee: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jesse Ronson wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jesse Ronson at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jesse Ronson threatens submissions; Kevin Lee has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Kevin Lee has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jesse Ronson (53.5%).
Kevin Lee has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jesse Ronson

Red Corner

Kevin Lee

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1437

Elo

1466

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jesse RonsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Michel Prazeres · Sep 13

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 14

SUBvs Nicolas Dalby · Jul 20

SUBvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 22

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Oct 22

latest

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jesse RonsonMetricKevin Lee

3.54

Strikes / min

3.88

3.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

57%

Strike defense

50%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

3.18

57%

Takedown defense

75%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jesse RonsonKevin Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jesse Ronson(6 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.2|Blue +29.2

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jesse RonsonTargetKevin Lee

By target zone

38% acc · 56%

Head

37% acc · 67%

75% acc · 19%

Body

80% acc · 33%

75% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

48% acc · 94%

Distance

38% acc · 73%

43% acc · 6%

Clinch

70% acc · 14%

Ground

100% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jesse Ronson rounds

even

Kevin Lee rounds

Round 1Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:11Control

Round 2Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:12

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:30Control

Round 3Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:29

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 100

Sig Strikes

49 / 110

47.7%

Sig Str %

44%

51 / 105

Total Strikes

66 / 128

1 / 2

TDs

4 / 12

50%

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

7:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Lee	17 / 35	23 / 41	2 / 6	0
1	Jesse Ronson	16 / 34	17 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Kevin Lee	14 / 37	16 / 39	2 / 4	0
2	Jesse Ronson	16 / 35	17 / 37	0 / 1	1
3	Kevin Lee	18 / 38	27 / 48	0 / 2	0
3	Jesse Ronson	16 / 31	17 / 33	1 / 1	0

Jesse Ronson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19