Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Jensen won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Elo1351

Jesse ForbesvsRyan JensenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · Saturday, May 29, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Jensen won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:06

Style matchupJesse Forbes: Submission grapplervsRyan Jensen: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Jesse Forbes wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Ryan Jensen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jesse Forbes at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jesse Forbes has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jesse Forbes (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jesse Forbes

Red Corner

Ryan Jensen

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1490

Elo

1351

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jesse ForbesNo prior UFC fights on record.

Ryan JensenL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 10

SUBvs Jason MacDonald · Apr 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jesse ForbesMetricRyan Jensen

2.11

Strikes / min

2.84

4.06

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

53%

Strike defense

59%

1.79

TDs / 15 min

1.55

66%

Takedown defense

31%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.95Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jesse ForbesRyan Jensen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jesse Forbes(1 fights)Ryan Jensen(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.1|Blue -139.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jesse ForbesTargetRyan Jensen

By target zone

38% acc · 100%

Head

50% acc · 100%

0% acc

Body

Leg

By position

33% acc · 67%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

33% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jesse Forbes rounds

even

Ryan Jensen rounds

Round 1Jesse Forbes edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:34

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 9

Sig Strikes

3 / 6

33%

Sig Str %

50%

3 / 9

Total Strikes

3 / 6

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Jensen	3 / 6	3 / 6	0 / 0	1
1	Jesse Forbes	3 / 9	3 / 9	1 / 1	1

Jesse Forbes

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights1

Ryan Jensen

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3