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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Chris Weidman won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Elo1494
Chris Weidman

Jesse BongfeldtvsChris WeidmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · Saturday, June 11, 2011Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Chris Weidman won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:54

Model Prediction: Chris Weidman wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Chris Weidman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Weidman at -475 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chris Weidman has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Chris Weidman has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jesse Bongfeldt
Red Corner
VS
Chris Weidman
Blue Corner
+420
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-475
(83%)
1490
Elo
1494
45
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
183 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jesse BongfeldtNo prior UFC fights on record.
Chris Weidman
oldest →
W
DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20
L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21
L
vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23
W
vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24
L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jesse BongfeldtMetricChris Weidman
2.91
Strikes / min
3.11
1.01
Strikes absorbed / min
3.37
50%
Strike defense
51%
1.51
TDs / 15 min
3.27
33%
Takedown defense
72%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.90Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1519Strikes53.0 vs 45.0Takedowns2.0 vs 5.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 1.0
Jesse BongfeldtChris Weidman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jesse Bongfeldt(1 fights)Chris Weidman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.3|Blue +4.3
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jesse BongfeldtTargetChris Weidman

By target zone

1
14% acc · 20%
Head
5
36% acc · 71%
3
100% acc · 60%
Body
1
100% acc · 14%
1
50% acc · 20%
Leg
1
50% acc · 14%

By position

2
22% acc · 40%
Distance
1
14% acc · 14%
3
100% acc · 60%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 29%
0
Ground
4
50% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jesse Bongfeldt rounds
0
even
1
Chris Weidman rounds
Round 1Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:46Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 12
Sig Strikes
7 / 17
41%
Sig Str %
41%
17 / 28
Total Strikes
32 / 44
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
3:46

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Weidman7 / 1732 / 441 / 11
1Jesse Bongfeldt5 / 1217 / 280 / 00

Jesse Bongfeldt

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights1

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights20