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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jessamyn Duke won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1490

Jessamyn DukevsPeggy MorganUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · Saturday, November 30, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jessamyn Duke won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Peggy Morgan wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Jessamyn Duke wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Peggy Morgan at +225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessamyn Duke enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jessamyn Duke has 24pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Jessamyn Duke

Red Corner

Peggy Morgan

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1355

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessamyn DukeL3 streak

oldest →

vs Bethe Correia · Apr 14

KOvs Leslie Smith · Jul 14

vs Elizabeth Phillips · Jul 15

latest

Peggy MorganNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessamyn DukeMetricPeggy Morgan

4.83

Strikes / min

2.27

4.43

Strikes absorbed / min

8.20

57%

Strike defense

33%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

50%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.40Δ 6.33 — meaningful gap-5.93

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessamyn Duke(4 fights)Peggy Morgan(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.2|Blue +135.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessamyn DukeTargetPeggy Morgan

By target zone

62% acc · 65%

Head

24% acc · 100%

73% acc · 28%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 7%

Leg

0% acc

By position

61% acc · 71%

Distance

23% acc · 91%

83% acc · 24%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 6%

Ground

75% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessamyn Duke rounds

even

Peggy Morgan rounds

Round 1Jessamyn Duke edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:29

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:26Control

Round 2Jessamyn Duke edged it

Sig. strikes65

Takedowns1

Control0:10

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Jessamyn Duke edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:49

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

123 / 185

Sig Strikes

34 / 147

66.3%

Sig Str %

22.7%

201 / 265

Total Strikes

45 / 158

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:28

Ctrl Time

5:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Peggy Morgan	4 / 19	7 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Jessamyn Duke	19 / 29	75 / 87	0 / 1	3
2	Peggy Morgan	22 / 95	22 / 95	0 / 0	0
2	Jessamyn Duke	65 / 101	69 / 105	1 / 1	0
3	Peggy Morgan	8 / 33	16 / 41	0 / 0	0
3	Jessamyn Duke	39 / 55	57 / 73	0 / 0	0

Jessamyn Duke

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Peggy Morgan

Stance—

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights1