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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Leslie Smith won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1355
Jessamyn Duke
Elo1491
Leslie Smith

Jessamyn DukevsLeslie SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · Wednesday, July 16, 2014Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Leslie Smith won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:24

Style matchupJessamyn Duke: Submission grapplervsLeslie Smith: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jessamyn Duke wins(68.6%)

Actual result: Leslie Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessamyn Duke at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jessamyn Duke has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jessamyn Duke
Red Corner
VS
Leslie Smith
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
1355
Elo
1491
40
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessamyn DukeL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Peggy Morgan · Nov 13
L
vs Bethe Correia · Apr 14
L
vs Elizabeth Phillips · Jul 15
latest
Leslie SmithW2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jessica Eye · Nov 14
W
vs Rin Nakai · Mar 16
L
KOvs Cris Cyborg · May 16
W
vs Irene Aldana · Dec 16
W
KOvs Amanda Lemos · Jul 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessamyn DukeMetricLeslie Smith
4.83
Strikes / min
7.56
4.43
Strikes absorbed / min
8.41
57%
Strike defense
51%
1.27
TDs / 15 min
0.00
50%
Takedown defense
62%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.40Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1484Strikes88.5 vs 79.0Takedowns1.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.50 vs 0.00Form-0.2 vs -1.0
Jessamyn DukeLeslie Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Jessamyn Duke(4 fights)Leslie Smith(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -135.7|Blue +135.7
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +4.0|Blue -4.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -10.0|Blue +10.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessamyn DukeTargetLeslie Smith

By target zone

6
24% acc · 38%
Head
21
49% acc · 58%
5
83% acc · 31%
Body
8
89% acc · 22%
5
100% acc · 31%
Leg
7
100% acc · 19%

By position

14
44% acc · 88%
Distance
18
50% acc · 50%
2
50% acc · 13%
Clinch
18
78% acc · 50%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jessamyn Duke rounds
0
even
1
Leslie Smith rounds
Round 1Leslie Smith edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
36Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
16 / 36
Sig Strikes
36 / 59
44%
Sig Str %
61%
16 / 36
Total Strikes
36 / 59
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Leslie Smith36 / 5936 / 590 / 00
1Jessamyn Duke16 / 3616 / 360 / 00

Jessamyn Duke

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4

Leslie Smith

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights7