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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Zabit Magomedsharipov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1492

Jeremy StephensvsZabit MagomedsharipovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Saturday, March 2, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Zabit Magomedsharipov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJeremy Stephens: Well-roundedvsZabit Magomedsharipov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Zabit Magomedsharipov wins(73.7%)

Actual result: Zabit Magomedsharipov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zabit Magomedsharipov at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Zabit Magomedsharipov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Zabit Magomedsharipov has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jeremy Stephens

Red Corner

Zabit Magomedsharipov

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1473

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Zabit MagomedsharipovW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mike Santiago · Sep 17

SUBvs Sheymon Moraes · Nov 17

vs Kyle Bochniak · Apr 18

SUBvs Brandon Davis · Sep 18

vs Calvin Kattar · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremy StephensMetricZabit Magomedsharipov

3.13

Strikes / min

4.89

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

57%

Strike defense

64%

1.10

TDs / 15 min

5.22

61%

Takedown defense

77%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap+1.89

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeremy StephensZabit Magomedsharipov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)Zabit Magomedsharipov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.5|Blue +19.5

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremy StephensTargetZabit Magomedsharipov

By target zone

22% acc · 49%

Head

45% acc · 61%

69% acc · 27%

Body

71% acc · 17%

77% acc · 24%

Leg

88% acc · 21%

By position

34% acc · 100%

Distance

51% acc · 86%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

82% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremy Stephens rounds

even

Zabit Magomedsharipov rounds

Round 1Zabit Magomedsharipov edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Zabit Magomedsharipov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:36Control

Round 3Zabit Magomedsharipov edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:01

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 121

Sig Strikes

70 / 129

32.3%

Sig Str %

54.3%

45 / 125

Total Strikes

83 / 146

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 8

—

TD %

30%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

2:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zabit Magomedsharipov	16 / 31	16 / 31	0 / 0
1	Jeremy Stephens	10 / 26	10 / 26	0 / 0
2	Zabit Magomedsharipov	26 / 41	39 / 58	3 / 5
2	Jeremy Stephens	6 / 25	10 / 29	0 / 0
3	Zabit Magomedsharipov	28 / 57	28 / 57	0 / 3
3	Jeremy Stephens	25 / 70	25 / 70	0 / 0

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27

Zabit Magomedsharipov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6