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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Renato Moicano won · S-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1523

Jeremy StephensvsRenato MoicanoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · Saturday, April 15, 2017Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Renato Moicano won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJeremy Stephens: Well-roundedvsRenato Moicano: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Renato Moicano wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Renato Moicano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renato Moicano at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jeremy Stephens

Red Corner

Renato Moicano

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1473

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Renato Moicano

oldest →

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremy StephensMetricRenato Moicano

3.13

Strikes / min

4.10

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

57%

Strike defense

59%

1.10

TDs / 15 min

1.68

61%

Takedown defense

64%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeremy StephensRenato Moicano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -182.0|Blue +182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremy StephensTargetRenato Moicano

By target zone

17% acc · 50%

Head

50% acc · 56%

70% acc · 13%

Body

60% acc · 4%

72% acc · 38%

Leg

85% acc · 40%

By position

26% acc · 95%

Distance

60% acc · 94%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

33% acc · 1%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremy Stephens rounds

even

Renato Moicano rounds

Round 1Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 207

Sig Strikes

70 / 116

26.3%

Sig Str %

60.7%

73 / 224

Total Strikes

76 / 123

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Renato Moicano	23 / 37	26 / 41	1 / 1
1	Jeremy Stephens	10 / 41	21 / 52	0 / 0
2	Renato Moicano	23 / 44	23 / 44	0 / 1
2	Jeremy Stephens	23 / 81	23 / 81	0 / 1
3	Renato Moicano	24 / 35	27 / 38	1 / 3
3	Jeremy Stephens	23 / 85	29 / 91	0 / 0

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20