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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mateusz Gamrot won · SUB R1

Elo1473

Elo1525

Jeremy StephensvsMateusz GamrotUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · Saturday, July 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mateusz Gamrot won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:05

Style matchupJeremy Stephens: Well-roundedvsMateusz Gamrot: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot wins(87.3%)

Actual result: Mateusz Gamrot wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mateusz Gamrot at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Mateusz Gamrot has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Gamrot (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jeremy Stephens

Red Corner

Mateusz Gamrot

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-275

(73%)

1473

Elo

1525

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Mar 19

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Mateusz Gamrot

oldest →

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Mar 24

vs Dan Hooker · Aug 24

vs Ludovit Klein · May 25

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 25

SUBvs Esteban Ribovics · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremy StephensMetricMateusz Gamrot

3.13

Strikes / min

3.21

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

57%

Strike defense

60%

1.10

TDs / 15 min

5.22

61%

Takedown defense

83%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeremy StephensMateusz Gamrot

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)Mateusz Gamrot(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.0|Blue +52.0

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +336.0|Blue -336.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremy StephensTargetMateusz Gamrot

By target zone

Head

100% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremy Stephens rounds

even

Mateusz Gamrot rounds

Round 1Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:03

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 0

Sig Strikes

1 / 1

—

Sig Str %

100%

2 / 2

Total Strikes

1 / 1

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mateusz Gamrot	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 2	1
1	Jeremy Stephens	0 / 0	2 / 2	0 / 0	0

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27

Mateusz Gamrot

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12