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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mason Jones won · U-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1542

Jeremy StephensvsMason JonesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 3, 2025Des Moines, Iowa, USA

Official fight result

Mason Jones won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJeremy Stephens: Well-roundedvsMason Jones: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mason Jones wins(85.0%)

Actual result: Mason Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mason Jones at -620 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jeremy Stephens

Red Corner

Mason Jones

Blue Corner

+460

(18%)

Vegas Odds

-620

(86%)

1473

Elo

1542

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Mar 19

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Mason JonesW2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Davis · Jan 21

vs David Onama · Oct 21

vs Ludovit Klein · Jul 22

KOvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 25

vs Axel Sola · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremy StephensMetricMason Jones

3.13

Strikes / min

5.98

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

57%

Strike defense

50%

1.10

TDs / 15 min

3.48

61%

Takedown defense

73%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap+1.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeremy StephensMason Jones

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)Mason Jones(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -69.1|Blue +69.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +371.0|Blue -371.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremy StephensTargetMason Jones

By target zone

24% acc · 45%

Head

27% acc · 62%

64% acc · 17%

Body

68% acc · 23%

89% acc · 38%

Leg

80% acc · 15%

By position

39% acc · 98%

Distance

34% acc · 91%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

71% acc · 6%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremy Stephens rounds

even

Mason Jones rounds

Round 1Mason Jones edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Mason Jones edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:11

37Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 3Mason Jones edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

5Takedowns

4:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 108

Sig Strikes

81 / 231

37%

Sig Str %

35.7%

54 / 126

Total Strikes

104 / 261

0 / 0

TDs

8 / 12

—

TD %

70.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:11

Ctrl Time

6:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mason Jones	39 / 103	41 / 108	2 / 2
1	Jeremy Stephens	21 / 47	24 / 53	0 / 0
2	Mason Jones	37 / 115	43 / 123	1 / 2
2	Jeremy Stephens	19 / 55	24 / 63	0 / 0
3	Mason Jones	5 / 13	20 / 30	5 / 8
3	Jeremy Stephens	2 / 6	6 / 10	0 / 0

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27

Mason Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6