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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jeremy Stephens won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1473

Elo1351

Jeremy StephensvsMarcus DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 125: Resolution · Saturday, January 1, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jeremy Stephens won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:33

Style matchupJeremy Stephens: Well-roundedvsMarcus Davis: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jeremy Stephens wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Jeremy Stephens wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremy Stephens at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Marcus Davis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jeremy Stephens

Red Corner

Marcus Davis

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1473

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Marcus Davis

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Goulet · May 10

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Aug 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremy StephensMetricMarcus Davis

3.13

Strikes / min

2.72

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.79

57%

Strike defense

65%

1.10

TDs / 15 min

1.60

61%

Takedown defense

47%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeremy StephensMarcus Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)Marcus Davis(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +121.7|Blue -121.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremy StephensTargetMarcus Davis

By target zone

18% acc · 36%

Head

19% acc · 76%

89% acc · 32%

Body

33% acc · 6%

100% acc · 32%

Leg

60% acc · 18%

By position

26% acc · 60%

Distance

23% acc · 100%

100% acc · 32%

Clinch

0% acc

67% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremy Stephens rounds

even

Marcus Davis rounds

Round 1Marcus Davis edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:18

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:29Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:41

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:53Control

Round 3Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 68

Sig Strikes

17 / 76

38.3%

Sig Str %

21%

51 / 96

Total Strikes

58 / 122

0 / 4

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

4:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcus Davis	6 / 22	15 / 34	1 / 3	0
1	Jeremy Stephens	10 / 18	25 / 33	0 / 1	0
2	Marcus Davis	2 / 20	34 / 54	1 / 1	0
2	Jeremy Stephens	6 / 19	17 / 32	0 / 2	2
3	Marcus Davis	9 / 34	9 / 34	0 / 0	0
3	Jeremy Stephens	9 / 31	9 / 31	0 / 1	0

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27

Marcus Davis

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3