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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jeremy Stephens won · U-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1374

Jeremy StephensvsGilbert MelendezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · Saturday, September 9, 2017Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Jeremy Stephens won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJeremy Stephens: Well-roundedvsGilbert Melendez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Jeremy Stephens wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Jeremy Stephens wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremy Stephens at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gilbert Melendez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jeremy Stephens

Red Corner

Gilbert Melendez

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1473

Elo

1374

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Gilbert MelendezL4 streak

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · Oct 13

SUBvs Anthony Pettis · Dec 14

vs Eddie Alvarez · Jun 15

vs Edson Barboza · Jul 16

vs Arnold Allen · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremy StephensMetricGilbert Melendez

3.13

Strikes / min

3.44

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

57%

Strike defense

63%

1.10

TDs / 15 min

1.64

61%

Takedown defense

71%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeremy StephensGilbert Melendez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)Gilbert Melendez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +98.4|Blue -98.4

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -266.0|Blue +266.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremy StephensTargetGilbert Melendez

By target zone

27% acc · 55%

Head

22% acc · 93%

61% acc · 11%

Body

25% acc · 3%

91% acc · 33%

Leg

33% acc · 3%

By position

34% acc · 82%

Distance

22% acc · 93%

70% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

91% acc · 10%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremy Stephens rounds

even

Gilbert Melendez rounds

Round 1Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:30

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:18

Knockdowns2

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:33

Knockdowns2

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

96 / 250

Sig Strikes

29 / 129

37.7%

Sig Str %

22.3%

101 / 255

Total Strikes

30 / 130

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gilbert Melendez	12 / 50	13 / 51	0 / 0
1	Jeremy Stephens	24 / 62	24 / 62	0 / 0
2	Gilbert Melendez	11 / 52	11 / 52	0 / 0
2	Jeremy Stephens	25 / 91	26 / 92	0 / 0
3	Gilbert Melendez	6 / 27	6 / 27	0 / 0
3	Jeremy Stephens	47 / 97	51 / 101	0 / 0

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27

Gilbert Melendez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7