← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jeremy Stephens won · U-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1353

Jeremy StephensvsEstevan PayanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · Saturday, May 25, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jeremy Stephens won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJeremy Stephens: Well-roundedvsEstevan Payan: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jeremy Stephens wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Jeremy Stephens wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremy Stephens at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jeremy Stephens

Red Corner

Estevan Payan

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1473

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Estevan PayanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robert Peralta · Dec 13

KOvs Alex White · Apr 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremy StephensMetricEstevan Payan

3.13

Strikes / min

4.25

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

57%

Strike defense

57%

1.10

TDs / 15 min

0.36

61%

Takedown defense

60%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeremy StephensEstevan Payan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)Estevan Payan(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +119.5|Blue -119.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremy StephensTargetEstevan Payan

By target zone

45% acc · 49%

Head

20% acc · 56%

73% acc · 22%

Body

50% acc · 20%

70% acc · 29%

Leg

43% acc · 24%

By position

42% acc · 49%

Distance

20% acc · 64%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

82% acc · 36%

86% acc · 49%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremy Stephens rounds

even

Estevan Payan rounds

Round 1Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control2:12

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control3:53

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control2:59

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 88

Sig Strikes

25 / 94

57.7%

Sig Str %

26.3%

82 / 123

Total Strikes

46 / 118

6 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:04

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Estevan Payan	11 / 42	14 / 46	0 / 0	1
1	Jeremy Stephens	16 / 34	18 / 36	2 / 4	0
2	Estevan Payan	6 / 25	12 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Jeremy Stephens	12 / 17	22 / 28	2 / 2	1
3	Estevan Payan	8 / 27	20 / 41	0 / 0	0
3	Jeremy Stephens	21 / 37	42 / 59	2 / 4	0

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27

Estevan Payan

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights3