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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1521

Jeremy StephensvsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale · Friday, December 12, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJeremy Stephens: Well-roundedvsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jeremy Stephens wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremy Stephens at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jeremy Stephens

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1473

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremy StephensMetricCharles Oliveira

3.13

Strikes / min

3.23

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

57%

Strike defense

48%

1.10

TDs / 15 min

2.29

61%

Takedown defense

54%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeremy StephensCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -48.7|Blue +48.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremy StephensTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

58% acc · 71%

Head

54% acc · 58%

73% acc · 17%

Body

80% acc · 28%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

53% acc · 52%

Distance

51% acc · 47%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

88% acc · 35%

65% acc · 35%

Ground

73% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremy Stephens rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control3:33

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:53

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:32Control

Round 3Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:53

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 79

Sig Strikes

43 / 67

60.3%

Sig Str %

65.3%

55 / 88

Total Strikes

74 / 100

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 7

—

TD %

40%

Sub Att

Rev

6:19

Ctrl Time

5:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	12 / 18	21 / 27	0 / 1	1
1	Jeremy Stephens	13 / 19	15 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Oliveira	15 / 20	30 / 37	1 / 1	2
2	Jeremy Stephens	11 / 21	11 / 21	0 / 0	0
3	Charles Oliveira	16 / 29	23 / 36	1 / 5	0
3	Jeremy Stephens	24 / 39	29 / 46	0 / 0	0

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36