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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Andre Fili won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1353

Elo1479

Jeremy LarsenvsAndre FiliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · Saturday, October 19, 2013Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Andre Fili won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:53

Style matchupJeremy Larsen: WrestlervsAndre Fili: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jeremy Larsen wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Andre Fili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremy Larsen at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Fili has 71pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Andre Fili has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jeremy Larsen

Red Corner

Andre Fili

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1353

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremy LarsenL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Proctor · Jun 12

KOvs Lucas Martins · May 13

latest

Andre FiliL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cub Swanson · Jun 24

SUBvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 25

vs Christian Rodriguez · Aug 25

vs Jose Delgado · Mar 26

KOvs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremy LarsenMetricAndre Fili

4.87

Strikes / min

3.88

5.75

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

57%

Strike defense

50%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

2.32

Takedown defense

71%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.88evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeremy LarsenAndre Fili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremy Larsen(3 fights)Andre Fili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -126.7|Blue +126.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremy LarsenTargetAndre Fili

By target zone

45% acc · 78%

Head

49% acc · 85%

100% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

80% acc · 7%

By position

50% acc · 96%

Distance

46% acc · 69%

Clinch

73% acc · 15%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

82% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremy Larsen rounds

even

Andre Fili rounds

Round 1Andre Fili edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:44

39Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Andre Fili edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 45

Sig Strikes

55 / 105

58.5%

Sig Str %

54.5%

30 / 53

Total Strikes

63 / 113

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:44

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andre Fili	39 / 78	47 / 86	1 / 1
1	Jeremy Larsen	14 / 33	21 / 41	1 / 2
2	Andre Fili	16 / 27	16 / 27	0 / 0
2	Jeremy Larsen	9 / 12	9 / 12	0 / 0

Jeremy Larsen

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3

Andre Fili

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights26