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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Dominick Reyes won · SUB R1
Elo1367
Jeremy Kimball
Elo1522
Dominick Reyes

Jeremy KimballvsDominick ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Saturday, December 2, 2017Detroit, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Dominick Reyes won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:39

Model Prediction: Jeremy Kimball wins(71.9%)

Actual result: Dominick Reyes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremy Kimball at +415 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jeremy Kimball is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Dominick Reyes has lost 80% of fights by KO.
  • Dominick Reyes is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Jeremy Kimball has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Dominick Reyes has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jeremy Kimball (54.1%).
  • Dominick Reyes has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jeremy Kimball
Red Corner
VS
Dominick Reyes
Blue Corner
+415
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-525
(84%)
1367
Elo
1522
35
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'4"
182.88 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremy Kimball
oldest →
L
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Jan 17
W
KOvs Josh Stansbury · Jun 17
L
KOvs Darko Stosic · Jul 18
latest
Dominick Reyes
oldest →
W
KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24
W
KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24
W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25
L
KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Sep 25
W
DECvs Johnny Walker · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremy KimballMetricDominick Reyes
2.81
Strikes / min
4.99
3.84
Strikes absorbed / min
3.40
49%
Strike defense
49%
1.41
TDs / 15 min
0.25
50%
Takedown defense
82%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.03Δ 2.62 — meaningful gap+1.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1500Strikes11.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.2 vs 0.0
Jeremy KimballDominick Reyes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Jeremy Kimball(4 fights)Dominick Reyes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -155.5|Blue +155.5
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremy KimballTargetDominick Reyes

By target zone

4
67% acc · 100%
Head
13
52% acc · 81%
0
Body
2
100% acc · 13%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 6%

By position

2
50% acc · 50%
Distance
3
60% acc · 19%
1
100% acc · 25%
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 25%
Ground
13
57% acc · 81%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jeremy Kimball rounds
0
even
1
Dominick Reyes rounds
Round 1Dominick Reyes edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control1:00
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:08Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 6
Sig Strikes
16 / 28
66%
Sig Str %
57%
4 / 6
Total Strikes
27 / 42
1 / 4
TDs
1 / 1
25%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
1:00
Ctrl Time
2:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dominick Reyes16 / 2827 / 421 / 11
1Jeremy Kimball4 / 64 / 61 / 40

Jeremy Kimball

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4

Dominick Reyes

StanceSouthpaw
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights13