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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jeremiah Wells won · U-DEC R3

Elo1512

Elo1489

Jeremiah WellsvsThemba GorimboUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Saturday, November 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jeremiah Wells won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJeremiah Wells: WrestlervsThemba Gorimbo: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Themba Gorimbo wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Jeremiah Wells wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Themba Gorimbo at -166 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Themba Gorimbo has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jeremiah Wells (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jeremiah Wells

Red Corner

Themba Gorimbo

Blue Corner

+132

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-166

(62%)

1512

Elo

1489

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremiah WellsL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Blood Diamond · Feb 22

KOvs Court McGee · Jun 22

vs Matthew Semelsberger · Apr 23

SUBvs Carlston Harris · Aug 23

vs Max Griffin · Feb 24

latest

Themba GorimboL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Pete Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Ramiz Brahimaj · May 24

vs Niko Price · Oct 24

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Dec 24

DECvs Jonathan Micallef · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremiah WellsMetricThemba Gorimbo

2.35

Strikes / min

2.70

1.28

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

48%

Strike defense

51%

3.06

TDs / 15 min

4.52

50%

Takedown defense

73%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.07evenly matched on net striking+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeremiah WellsThemba Gorimbo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremiah Wells(7 fights)Themba Gorimbo(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.9|Blue -22.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +301.0|Blue -301.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremiah WellsTargetThemba Gorimbo

By target zone

53% acc · 72%

Head

36% acc · 44%

100% acc · 16%

Body

90% acc · 50%

80% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

54% acc · 66%

Distance

50% acc · 83%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

79% acc · 34%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremiah Wells rounds

even

Themba Gorimbo rounds

Round 1Themba Gorimbo edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control0:57

4Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:36Control

Round 2Jeremiah Wells edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:15

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 3Jeremiah Wells edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control2:53

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 53

Sig Strikes

18 / 33

52%

Sig Str %

67.3%

59 / 84

Total Strikes

80 / 102

3 / 5

TDs

6 / 9

66.7%

TD %

72%

Sub Att

Rev

6:05

Ctrl Time

5:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Themba Gorimbo	4 / 4	29 / 34	4 / 6	0
1	Jeremiah Wells	1 / 3	2 / 5	1 / 2	0
2	Themba Gorimbo	10 / 22	33 / 46	1 / 2	0
2	Jeremiah Wells	14 / 26	27 / 41	1 / 1	1
3	Themba Gorimbo	4 / 7	18 / 22	1 / 1	0
3	Jeremiah Wells	17 / 24	30 / 38	1 / 2	2

Jeremiah Wells

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Themba Gorimbo

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7