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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jeremiah Wells won · S-DEC R3

Elo1512

Elo1487

Jeremiah WellsvsMatthew SemelsbergerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Saturday, April 22, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jeremiah Wells won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jeremiah Wells wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Jeremiah Wells wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremiah Wells at -102 American odds

+$98 profit

$198 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jeremiah Wells

Red Corner

Matthew Semelsberger

Blue Corner

-102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-116

(54%)

1512

Elo

1487

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremiah Wells

oldest →

SUBvs Blood Diamond · Feb 22

KOvs Court McGee · Jun 22

SUBvs Carlston Harris · Aug 23

vs Max Griffin · Feb 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Nov 25

latest

Matthew SemelsbergerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jul 22

vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22

KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23

vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24

KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremiah WellsMetricMatthew Semelsberger

2.35

Strikes / min

3.77

1.28

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

48%

Strike defense

54%

3.06

TDs / 15 min

1.01

50%

Takedown defense

45%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.07Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeremiah WellsMatthew Semelsberger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremiah Wells(7 fights)Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.6|Blue -24.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremiah WellsTargetMatthew Semelsberger

By target zone

43% acc · 81%

Head

52% acc · 85%

78% acc · 19%

Body

75% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 28%

Distance

55% acc · 60%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

80% acc · 20%

53% acc · 67%

Ground

40% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremiah Wells rounds

even

Matthew Semelsberger rounds

Round 1Jeremiah Wells edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control3:31

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Jeremiah Wells edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control3:09

Knockdowns0

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Jeremiah Wells edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns3

Control4:32

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 76

Sig Strikes

20 / 37

50.7%

Sig Str %

51%

86 / 158

Total Strikes

39 / 59

6 / 10

TDs

0 / 1

58.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

11:12

Ctrl Time

1:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matthew Semelsberger	11 / 18	15 / 23	0 / 0
1	Jeremiah Wells	17 / 38	35 / 69	2 / 4
2	Matthew Semelsberger	6 / 12	19 / 26	0 / 1
2	Jeremiah Wells	16 / 33	32 / 59	1 / 2
3	Matthew Semelsberger	3 / 7	5 / 10	0 / 0
3	Jeremiah Wells	3 / 5	19 / 30	3 / 4

Jeremiah Wells

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Matthew Semelsberger

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11