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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Carlston Harris won · SUB R3

Elo1512

Elo1476

Jeremiah WellsvsCarlston HarrisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · Saturday, August 5, 2023Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Carlston Harris won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:50

Style matchupJeremiah Wells: WrestlervsCarlston Harris: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jeremiah Wells wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Carlston Harris wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremiah Wells at -118 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlston Harris enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Carlston Harris threatens submissions; Jeremiah Wells has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Jeremiah Wells (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jeremiah Wells

Red Corner

Carlston Harris

Blue Corner

-118

(54%)

Vegas Odds

-102

(50%)

1512

Elo

1476

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremiah Wells

oldest →

SUBvs Blood Diamond · Feb 22

KOvs Court McGee · Jun 22

vs Matthew Semelsberger · Apr 23

vs Max Griffin · Feb 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Nov 25

latest

Carlston HarrisL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Feb 22

vs Jared Gooden · Mar 23

KOvs Khaos Williams · May 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 25

DECvs Jake Matthews · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremiah WellsMetricCarlston Harris

2.35

Strikes / min

3.79

1.28

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

48%

Strike defense

54%

3.06

TDs / 15 min

1.46

50%

Takedown defense

55%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.07evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeremiah WellsCarlston Harris

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremiah Wells(7 fights)Carlston Harris(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.8|Blue -35.8

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremiah WellsTargetCarlston Harris

By target zone

35% acc · 89%

Head

7% acc · 20%

100% acc · 11%

Body

75% acc · 60%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

20% acc · 28%

Distance

26% acc · 100%

67% acc · 11%

Clinch

55% acc · 61%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremiah Wells rounds

even

Carlston Harris rounds

Round 1Jeremiah Wells edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control4:24

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jeremiah Wells edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control4:34

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:28

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 48

Sig Strikes

5 / 19

35.7%

Sig Str %

25.5%

41 / 78

Total Strikes

19 / 36

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

66.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:26

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlston Harris	0 / 0	6 / 7	0 / 1	0
1	Jeremiah Wells	3 / 8	10 / 16	2 / 2	2
2	Carlston Harris	1 / 4	9 / 13	0 / 0	0
2	Jeremiah Wells	13 / 22	29 / 44	1 / 1	0
3	Carlston Harris	4 / 15	4 / 16	0 / 0	1
3	Jeremiah Wells	2 / 18	2 / 18	0 / 2	0

Jeremiah Wells

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Carlston Harris

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8