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Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jennifer Maia won · U-DEC R3
Elo1499
Elo1493
Maryna Moroz

Jennifer MaiavsMaryna MorozUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Saturday, November 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jennifer Maia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJennifer Maia: Pressure fightervsMaryna Moroz: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Maryna Moroz wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Jennifer Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Maryna Moroz at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jennifer Maia has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jennifer Maia
Red Corner
VS
Maryna Moroz
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
1499
Elo
1493
37
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'7"
162.56 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jennifer Maia
oldest →
W
vs Jessica Eye · Jul 21
L
vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jan 22
L
vs Manon Fiorot · Mar 22
W
vs Casey O'Neill · Mar 23
L
vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 23
latest
Maryna MorozL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Sabina Mazo · Mar 19
W
vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Mar 20
W
SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Mar 22
L
SUBvs Karine Silva · Aug 23
L
vs Joanne Wood · Mar 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jennifer MaiaMetricMaryna Moroz
4.35
Strikes / min
4.42
4.52
Strikes absorbed / min
4.89
55%
Strike defense
51%
0.42
TDs / 15 min
0.70
58%
Takedown defense
42%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.17evenly matched on net striking-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1494 vs 1559Strikes4.3 vs 4.4Takedowns0.4 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.60Form-0.5 vs 1.0
Jennifer MaiaMaryna Moroz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jennifer Maia(10 fights)Maryna Moroz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +6.3|Blue -6.3
Recent Form
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Striker Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jennifer MaiaTargetMaryna Moroz

By target zone

84
38% acc · 77%
Head
55
23% acc · 69%
14
78% acc · 13%
Body
14
61% acc · 18%
11
100% acc · 10%
Leg
11
92% acc · 14%

By position

101
42% acc · 93%
Distance
78
29% acc · 98%
8
73% acc · 7%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 3%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Jennifer Maia rounds
1
even
0
Maryna Moroz rounds
Round 1Jennifer Maia edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control1:32
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns0
Control0:00
41Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jennifer Maia edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:12
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
109 / 253
Sig Strikes
80 / 272
44%
Sig Str %
27.3%
117 / 261
Total Strikes
84 / 276
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:44
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Maryna Moroz13 / 6113 / 610 / 00
1Jennifer Maia30 / 5836 / 640 / 00
2Maryna Moroz41 / 11441 / 1140 / 00
2Jennifer Maia41 / 11041 / 1100 / 00
3Maryna Moroz26 / 9730 / 1010 / 00
3Jennifer Maia38 / 8540 / 870 / 00

Jennifer Maia

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights12

Maryna Moroz

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights11