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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jennifer Maia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1520

Jennifer MaiavsCasey O'NeillUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Jennifer Maia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJennifer Maia: Pressure fightervsCasey O'Neill: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Casey O'Neill wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Jennifer Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Casey O'Neill at -184 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Casey O'Neill has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jennifer Maia

Red Corner

Casey O'Neill

Blue Corner

+154

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-184

(65%)

1499

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

162.56 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jennifer Maia

oldest →

vs Jessica Eye · Jul 21

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jan 22

vs Manon Fiorot · Mar 22

vs Maryna Moroz · Nov 22

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 23

latest

Casey O'NeillW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Antonina Shevchenko · Oct 21

vs Roxanne Modafferi · Feb 22

SUBvs Ariane da Silva · Dec 23

vs Luana Santos · Aug 24

KOvs Gabriella Fernandes · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jennifer MaiaMetricCasey O'Neill

4.35

Strikes / min

7.89

4.52

Strikes absorbed / min

5.53

55%

Strike defense

57%

0.42

TDs / 15 min

1.40

58%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.17Δ 2.53 — meaningful gap+2.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jennifer MaiaCasey O'Neill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jennifer Maia(10 fights)Casey O'Neill(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.2|Blue +21.2

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red -280.0|Blue +280.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jennifer MaiaTargetCasey O'Neill

By target zone

123

38% acc · 85%

Head

108

48% acc · 79%

69% acc · 8%

Body

75% acc · 18%

92% acc · 8%

Leg

83% acc · 4%

By position

124

39% acc · 86%

Distance

129

51% acc · 94%

75% acc · 14%

Clinch

80% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jennifer Maia rounds

even

Casey O'Neill rounds

Round 1Jennifer Maia edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:04

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jennifer Maia edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:23

47Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:56

47Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

145 / 349

Sig Strikes

137 / 264

41%

Sig Str %

51.3%

151 / 355

Total Strikes

137 / 264

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:23

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Casey O'Neill	43 / 96	43 / 96	0 / 0
1	Jennifer Maia	47 / 113	48 / 114	0 / 1
2	Casey O'Neill	47 / 84	47 / 84	0 / 0
2	Jennifer Maia	51 / 119	55 / 123	0 / 0
3	Casey O'Neill	47 / 84	47 / 84	0 / 1
3	Jennifer Maia	47 / 117	48 / 118	0 / 3

Jennifer Maia

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12

Casey O'Neill

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8