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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Magomed Bibulatov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1370

Jenel LausavsMagomed BibulatovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2017Buffalo, New York, USA

Official fight result

Magomed Bibulatov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jenel Lausa wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Magomed Bibulatov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jenel Lausa at +470 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Magomed Bibulatov has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jenel Lausa

Red Corner

Magomed Bibulatov

Blue Corner

+470

(18%)

Vegas Odds

-640

(86%)

1366

Elo

1370

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jenel LausaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Yao Zhikui · Nov 16

vs Eric Shelton · Nov 17

SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 18

latest

Magomed BibulatovL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Moraga · Oct 17

vs Rogerio Bontorin · Feb 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jenel LausaMetricMagomed Bibulatov

1.44

Strikes / min

3.60

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

1.83

53%

Strike defense

52%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

2.85

51%

Takedown defense

75%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.09Δ 3.86 — meaningful gap+1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jenel LausaMagomed Bibulatov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jenel Lausa(4 fights)Magomed Bibulatov(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.5|Blue +4.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jenel LausaTargetMagomed Bibulatov

By target zone

27% acc · 70%

Head

40% acc · 71%

50% acc · 20%

Body

53% acc · 20%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

71% acc · 10%

By position

25% acc · 70%

Distance

28% acc · 31%

Clinch

57% acc · 8%

100% acc · 30%

Ground

62% acc · 61%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jenel Lausa rounds

even

Magomed Bibulatov rounds

Round 1Magomed Bibulatov edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Magomed Bibulatov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:26

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:52Control

Round 3Magomed Bibulatov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 31

Sig Strikes

51 / 115

35.3%

Sig Str %

43.7%

31 / 56

Total Strikes

94 / 165

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 7

—

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

7:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Magomed Bibulatov	13 / 38	13 / 38	0 / 2
1	Jenel Lausa	2 / 17	2 / 17	0 / 0
2	Magomed Bibulatov	16 / 36	30 / 52	1 / 3
2	Jenel Lausa	7 / 10	15 / 19	0 / 0
3	Magomed Bibulatov	22 / 41	51 / 75	1 / 2
3	Jenel Lausa	1 / 4	14 / 20	0 / 0

Jenel Lausa

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Magomed Bibulatov

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights3