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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Jeka Saragih won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1482
Jeka Saragih
Elo1485

Jeka SaragihvsLucas AlexanderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Saturday, November 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jeka Saragih won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:31

Style matchupJeka Saragih: WrestlervsLucas Alexander: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Lucas Alexander wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Jeka Saragih wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lucas Alexander at -500 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jeka Saragih enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Jeka Saragih is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Lucas Alexander has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Lucas Alexander has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Lucas Alexander has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jeka Saragih
Red Corner
VS
Lucas Alexander
Blue Corner
+380
(21%)
Vegas Odds
-500
(83%)
1482
Elo
1485
31
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeka SaragihL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Anshul Jubli · Feb 23
L
SUBvs Westin Wilson · Jun 24
L
KOvs JooSang Yoo · Jun 25
latest
Lucas Alexander
oldest →
L
SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Oct 22
W
vs Steven Peterson · Mar 23
L
KOvs Bogdan Grad · Feb 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeka SaragihMetricLucas Alexander
2.75
Strikes / min
4.69
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
40%
Strike defense
56%
2.17
TDs / 15 min
0.00
66%
Takedown defense
60%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07Δ 1.89 — meaningful gap+1.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1482 vs 1500Strikes2.7 vs 5.2Takedowns2.2 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs 0.2
Jeka SaragihLucas Alexander

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Jeka Saragih(4 fights)Lucas Alexander(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -2.8|Blue +2.8
Recent Form
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeka SaragihTargetLucas Alexander

By target zone

3
50% acc · 75%
Head
6
60% acc · 55%
1
50% acc · 25%
Body
2
67% acc · 18%
0
0% acc
Leg
3
100% acc · 27%

By position

2
33% acc · 50%
Distance
11
69% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
2
67% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jeka Saragih rounds
0
even
0
Lucas Alexander rounds
Round 1Jeka Saragih edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control0:05
Knockdowns1
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
4 / 9
Sig Strikes
11 / 16
44%
Sig Str %
68%
4 / 9
Total Strikes
11 / 16
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Lucas Alexander11 / 1611 / 160 / 10
1Jeka Saragih4 / 94 / 91 / 10

Jeka Saragih

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4

Lucas Alexander

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4