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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jeff Molina won · S-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1462

Jeff MolinavsZhalgas ZhumagulovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, June 4, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jeff Molina won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJeff Molina: Pressure fightervsZhalgas Zhumagulov: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jeff Molina wins(82.0%)

Actual result: Jeff Molina wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeff Molina at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Zhalgas Zhumagulov (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jeff Molina

Red Corner

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1497

Elo

1462

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'4"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeff MolinaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Aori Qileng · Apr 21

KOvs Daniel Lacerda · Oct 21

latest

Zhalgas ZhumagulovL3 streak

oldest →

vs Amir Albazi · Jan 21

SUBvs Jerome Rivera · Jul 21

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 21

vs Charles Johnson · Nov 22

vs Joshua Van · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeff MolinaMetricZhalgas Zhumagulov

7.25

Strikes / min

5.24

5.04

Strikes absorbed / min

5.86

55%

Strike defense

52%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.30

66%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.21Δ 2.83 — meaningful gap-0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeff MolinaZhalgas Zhumagulov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeff Molina(3 fights)Zhalgas Zhumagulov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.2|Blue -35.2

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeff MolinaTargetZhalgas Zhumagulov

By target zone

32% acc · 77%

Head

14% acc · 27%

86% acc · 11%

Body

65% acc · 46%

88% acc · 13%

Leg

83% acc · 27%

By position

35% acc · 88%

Distance

27% acc · 76%

71% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 24%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeff Molina rounds

even

Zhalgas Zhumagulov rounds

Round 1Zhalgas Zhumagulov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:04

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:16Control

Round 2Zhalgas Zhumagulov edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:10

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:37Control

Round 3Jeff Molina edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 148

Sig Strikes

37 / 112

38.3%

Sig Str %

33.3%

129 / 226

Total Strikes

68 / 146

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 13

—

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

5:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zhalgas Zhumagulov	14 / 32	22 / 40	0 / 4
1	Jeff Molina	14 / 35	30 / 53	0 / 0
2	Zhalgas Zhumagulov	7 / 25	20 / 40	2 / 6
2	Jeff Molina	13 / 33	60 / 83	0 / 0
3	Zhalgas Zhumagulov	16 / 55	26 / 66	0 / 3
3	Jeff Molina	29 / 80	39 / 90	0 / 0

Jeff Molina

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

StanceSwitch

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights6